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A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."